Why PolyFrog

Most prediction markets are hard in the same place: someone has to say what happened. That person can be wrong, bribed, slow, or simply absent. Whole protocols exist to manage that one weakness — bonded reporters, dispute rounds, escalation games.

PolyFrog does not have that weakness, because of an accident of design in the thing it settles against.

The question is already a state variable

Uniswap’s auction stores how much has been raised, and the amount required to graduate. Graduation is the comparison between them. It is not an interpretation of an event in the world; it is a number being greater than another number, in a contract anyone can call.

function _isGraduated() internal view returns (bool) {
    return $currencyRaisedQ96X7 >= REQUIRED_CURRENCY_RAISED_Q96X7;
}

So settlement is a read. There is no oracle to trust, no committee to convene, no window in which someone can dispute the result. The market and the event share an address space.

The market that was missing

If you believe a launch will clear, your only move today is to bid in it. But that binds two different opinions together: whether the launch succeeds, and whether the token is worth holding afterwards. You are forced to take delivery of a token to express a view about an auction.

Worse, bidding changes the thing you are predicting. Capital that is trying to forecast the outcome is also causing it.

Separating the two gives you a clean instrument: a position on the launch that settles in ETH and never leaves you holding the token.

Why it is worth pricing

Because failure is the base case. Across the auctions this site indexes, a minority of settled auctions have ever reached their threshold. A market that starts from that prior, and updates as the raise ticks up in public, is doing real work — and it is the kind of work a crowd is genuinely good at.