Time weighting

Two people stake the same amount on the same side and win. The one who committed earlier takes more. That is deliberate, and it is borrowed from the auction itself.

The multiplier

Each stake is recorded with a weight. The multiplier starts at 2× when the market opens and decays linearly to 1× at the auction’s end block.

multiplier = 1 + (endBlock - now) / (endBlock - openBlock)
weight     = stake × multiplier

Why

Information about a launch arrives continuously. A stake placed in the first minutes is a claim made when the answer is genuinely unknown. A stake placed near the end is made when the raise is largely visible — much closer to reading the result than predicting it.

Paying those two the same would make the market a race to be last. Weighting by time makes it a contest to be right early, which is the only thing a prediction market is actually for.

It also mirrors the underlying auction, which fills bids according to how long they were exposed. The market and the mechanism it settles against reward the same behaviour.

Weight is not leverage

This is the important part. Weight affects only your share of the losing pool. It never changes how much you can lose. A 2× weight does not risk 2× your stake — it risks exactly your stake, like everyone else.