IA market opens
Anyone opens a market on any live auction. Permissionless, one per auction, costs only gas.
Will it
graduate?
The first prediction market built for token launches on pools.trade, Uniswap’s new launchpad. Stake on whether an auction reaches its required raise — and let the auction contract settle it.
No oracle. No committee. No dispute window. The auction already knows the answer.
Nobody has priced a launch before it happens.
Uniswap’s Continuous Clearing Auction only graduates a token when the currency raised reaches the threshold its creator set. Miss it and every bid is refunded — the token never reaches a pool. Until now the only way to express a view on that was to bid, which means buying the token to have an opinion about the auction.
PolyFrog separates the two. It is the first market on the launchpad itself, and it settles by reading the auction contract rather than asking anyone what happened.
793
auctions indexed
91
graduated
123
failed
43%
graduation rate
How a market runs
I
IIYou take a side
Stake ETH on graduate or fail. Early conviction counts double and decays to face value by the closing block.
IIIThe auction settles it
After the end block anyone calls resolve. PolyFrog checkpoints the auction and reads isGraduated().
Open markets
All markets
57%
of settled auctions never graduate
A launchpad is a filter, not a conveyor belt.
Failure is the base case. A market that starts from that prior, and updates as the raise ticks up in public, is doing real work — and it is the kind of work a crowd is genuinely good at.
The question and the answer live in the same contract.
Most prediction markets need someone to declare what happened. PolyFrog does not: the thing being predicted is a comparison between two numbers the auction already stores.
// Uniswap's ContinuousClearingAuction
function _isGraduated() internal view returns (bool) {
return $currencyRaisedQ96X7 >= REQUIRED_CURRENCY_RAISED_Q96X7;
}Read the mechanismThe absorbing state
Currency raised only ever goes up while an auction is live. The moment the threshold is crossed the answer is certain and can never reverse, so betting closes on that block — not on a timer.
Auction opensmarket opens, weight 2×
Bids arriveweight decays toward 1×
Threshold crossedbetting closes
End blockanyone may resolve
Reading a launch is a skill. It has never had a market.
Some launches are hopeless the moment they open — a threshold set far beyond any plausible demand, or a creator with no reason to be believed. Others clear in minutes. Telling those apart quickly is worth something, and until now the only way to act on it was to buy the token.
PolyFrog pays for the judgement, not the coin. You take a position on whether the raise lands, it settles in ETH, and you never end up holding a token you did not want.
And because early conviction is weighted double, the reward goes to whoever read the room first — not to whoever refreshed the page last.
The launchpad
Every auction the Uniswap factory has created, read straight from Robinhood Chain. The curve is each auction’s real clearing price.
| Token | Status | Raised | Toward threshold | FDV | Bids | Demand | Window | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GME GameStop $GME | Live | 0 non-ETH | 0.00%259.8753 needed | 51.9751 | 0 | 6d 23h left | ||
TES Test3 $TEST3 | Live | 0.0011 $2 | 0.03%2.672 needed | $616 | 3 | 3h 53m left | ||
USU Frog Summer $USUMMER | Graduated | 0.1574 $302 | 100%0 needed | $604 | 0 | 3m 0s | ||
IOU iou coded $iou coded | Live | 0 non-ETH | 0.00%600 needed | 1,200 | 0 | 2h 51m left | ||
SEE SEEDCAT $SEEDCAT | Graduated | 0.0636 $122 | 127%0.05 needed | $1.9K | 1 | 30s | ||
TES Test2 $TEST2 | Live | 0.0005 $0.98 | 0.01%2.672 needed | $414 | 2 | 3h 44m left | ||
USU Cheap Summer $USUMMER | Graduated | 0.1576 $302 | 100%0 needed | $604 | 0 | 3m 0s | ||
GME GameStop $GME | Live | 0 non-ETH | 0.00%259.8753 needed | 51.9751 | 0 | 3h 44m left | ||
HAS HASHMOOSE $HASHMOOSE | Graduated | 0.1636 $314 | 327%0.05 needed | $1.9K | 2 | 30s | ||
TES Test $TEST | Live | 0 $0 | 0.00%2.672 needed | $10 | 0 | 3h 50m left |
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PolyFrog is independent. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by Uniswap Labs or Robinhood.