Introduction

PolyFrog is a prediction market on a single, narrow question: will this Uniswap auction reach its required raise before it ends?

It runs on Robinhood Chain, against the Continuous Clearing Auctions that Uniswap’s Liquidity Launchpad creates. You stake ETH on graduate or fail. When the auction is over, the market settles by reading the auction contract. Nobody is asked what happened, because the auction already recorded it.

What PolyFrog does

Every token launched through a Crowd Launch has to clear a threshold. The auction takes bids for a fixed window; if the currency raised reaches the amount the creator required, the token graduates into a Uniswap pool. If it does not, every bidder is refunded in full and the token never trades.

That is a binary event with a deadline, a public running total, and an on-chain answer. PolyFrog lets you take a position on it without having to bid in the auction yourself — which matters, because bidding is a bet on the token, while this is a bet on the launch. They are not the same trade.

Who this is for

• People who read launches. If you can tell a real launch from a dead one faster than the crowd, that skill currently has no market. Now it does.
• Bidders who want a hedge. You are already exposed to the raise. A NO position offsets the cost of a launch that never clears.
• Builders. Everything is permissionless: opening markets, resolving them, and reading state. There is no allowlist and no admin key over your funds.

What these docs cover

The auction explains the mechanism PolyFrog settles against, in enough detail to know what you are betting on. The market covers opening, betting, time weighting and payouts. Protocol lists the deployed addresses, the trust model and the risks in full.

New here? Read Why PolyFrog, then Graduation, then Quickstart.